Putting an end to Russian oil imports. How Europe can reduce its demand for oil for transport by 35%

Russia is the world's second largest oil exporter, and Europe is its biggest customer. Russia currently supplies one in every four barrels of oil consumed in Europe, two-thirds of which is used in transport. The UK has announced a ban on Russian oil imports, and the European Union has announced a phasing-out of Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. This paper assesses how, and to what extent, the EU could end Russian oil imports, while reducing oil demand. This would avoid creating new dependencies on other oil-producing states, notably authoritarian regimes such as Saudi Arabia or Iran. Our analysis reveals that certain energy-saving measures combined with a rapid vehicle electrification program could reduce oil demand by 38.8 Mtoe by 2023, equivalent to 48% of Russian oil used in transport in Europe (or 12% of total EU transport demand). While it would be temporarily necessary to source the remaining 52% from other supplier countries, by 2030 EU oil demand could be 35% lower than in 2019. This would wean us off the Russian oil market entirely. By focusing on energy savings and electrification, Europe's short-term energy security strategy would not only be in line with the EU's climate commitments, but would also help to drive down global oil prices