The impact of a 50% reduction of solid waste disposal in Canada on methane emissions from landfills in 2000

Canada's Green Plan established a goal of 50% reduction in municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal between 1988 and the year 2000. Canada has also committed to stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2000. MSW landfills are targeted since they account for a significant portion of anthropogenic methane emissions. Current composition and quantities of MSW were estimated. Using five scenarios for achieving a 50% reduction of waste disposed, the quantities and composition of waste managed were estimated through to the year 2000. A first-order decay model was used to estimate methane emissions from landfills of each scenario by varying the methane generation potential (Lo) based on the amount of biodegradable carbon in the MSW stream. Despite the overall reduction in waste, methane emissions are still projected on increase between 1990 and 2000 for scenarios with 25 to 45% of waste going to landfill in 2000. The estimated increases in methane emissions range from 2% for the high composting scenario to 16% for the high landfill scenario. In general, emissions peak during the 1990's and are decreasing by 2000. The projected increase in emissions is due to the 65--75% contribution of MSW landfilled before 1990. In conclusion, a significant reduction in methane emissions from landfills by 2000 will require methane recovery systems in addition to MSW reduction initiatives