Earth nutation and celestial frame stability: contribution of VLBI observations

The reference nutation model (MHB2000) and the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF2) was established in 2000 and 2009 respectively. VLBI observations are being accumulated since and these are all new data to refine the nutation and better characterize the instability of radio sources constituting the celestial frame. The lengthening of the available data reveals defects in the reference wobble and fluctuations in the position of radio sources. It is important to adjust the nutation terms while assessing the impact of the instability of the celestial reference frame on it. Initially, we obtain significant corrections in terms of nutation model MHB2000 up to 50 micro-seconds of degree on the basis of IVS operational nutation time series. We also evaluate their uncertainty. Our interest is focused on the free core nutation and a term closed in frequency, the retrograde annual term. We try to characterize the multi-annual variability, on amplitude, phase and period, despite correlation that affects both terms. Secondly, we study the stability of the celestial reference frame by a comprehensive study of the potential sources to define the frame. Such defining sources are selected by analysis using Allan variance of their astrometric displacements. This analysis gives the 'color' of the random noise that affects positions based on different time scales corresponding to 30 years of VLBI observations. Specifically, we select radio sources with white noise. It follows that on 123 sources from those chosen for ICRF2 in 2009, only 40 meet this criterion of stability over the period 1985-2016. This number is too small to build a new a celestial reference frame and compromises are necessary. Finally, errors propagation of radio position on nutation has been characterized, explaining the noise unusually large of some nutation time series diffused by the IVS. (author)