The influence of source term and plume rise upon the effects of hypothetical accidents with future nuclear power plants in The Netherlands

Previously, calculations induced the belief that an accident in a nuclear power plant could cause thousands of deaths within a few months time. Recently, however, it has become increasingly clear that these calculations have been derived from unrealistic premises. There appears to be a physical limit to the amount of radioactivity that can be released during an accident and that can be distributed; these limits will reduce the consequences of any such disaster. This paper is comprised of: (1) a short survey of previous risk analyses carried out by the electric power companies since 1975; (2) a discussion on unrealistic conservatism in previous risk studies; and (3) the results of new risk analyses for 1000 MWe nuclear power plants at potential sites (Borssele in the province of Zeeland and Rotterdamse Hoek in the North Eastern Polder). (orig.)