Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach

Highlights: • A system dynamics model for evaluating renewable energy policies on dependency is proposed. • The model considers the role of diversification on dependency and security of energy supply in Finland. • Dependency on imported sources will decrease depends on the defined scenarios in Finland. - Abstract: Objective: We discuss the role of diversification on dependency and security of energy supply. A system dynamics model with especial focus on the role of renewable energy resources (as a portfolio) on Finland's energy dependency is developed. The purpose is also to cover a part of research gap exists in the system dynamics modeling of energy security investigations. Methods: A causal loops diagram and a system dynamics model evaluate Finnish scenarios of renewable energy policies. The analysis describes the relationship between dynamic factors such as RE encouragement packages, dependency, and energy demand. Results: A causal loops diagram and a system dynamics model evaluate three different Finnish scenarios of renewable energy policies by 2020. Conclusion: Analysis shows that despite 7% electricity/heat consumption growth by 2020 in Finland, dependency on imported sources will decrease between 1% and 7% depend on the defined scenarios. Practice Implications: The proposed model not only helps decision makers to test their scenarios related to renewable energy polices, it can be implemented by other countries