Reliability studies in a developing technology

The standard methods of reliability analysis can only be applied if valid failure statistics are available. In a developing technology the statistics which have been accumulated, over many years of conventional experience, are often rendered useless by environmental effects. Thus new data, which take account of the new environment, are required. This paper discusses the problem of optimizing the acquisition of these data when time-scales and resources are limited. It is concluded that the most fruitful strategy in assessing the reliability of mechanisms is to study the failures of individual joints whilst developing, where necessary, analytical tools to facilitate the use of these data. The approach is illustrated by examples from the field of tribology. Failures of rolling element bearings in moist, high-pressure carbon dioxide illustrate the important effects of apparently minor changes in the environment. New analytical techniques are developed from a study of friction failures in sliding joints. (author)