Long-term outlook of energy demand and supply, and CO2 emissions in China. Asia/World Energy Outlook 2011 (China)

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan made a long-term energy outlook, 'Asia/World Energy Outlook 2011', which prospected energy demand and supply, and CO2 emissions on the world up to 2035. This paper is a report on the prediction results of China. The primary energy consumption in China will increase to 3,897 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in 2035, almost doubled that in 2009. Coal will continue to be the major energy during this period, 2,083 Mtoe in 2035, but the share will decline from 74% in 2009 to 53% in 2035. The consumption of oil will raise fast, more than 810 Mtoe in 2035, and the dependence of import will increase to 76%. Nature gas, nuclear and renewable energy, especially wind power will grow rapidly, the shares will increase to 13%, 5.2% and 7.2% in 2035. China will remain to be the largest CO2 emitter in the world, CO2 emission will increase to 10.9 Gt-CO2 in 2035. But with the additional effort mainly on the development of energy conservation and utilization of nonfossil fuel, the CO2 emission in 2035 can be reduced to 6.7 Gt-CO2. (author)