Deterministic and probabilistic crack growth analysis for the JRC Ispra 1/5 scale pressure vessel n0 R2

A deterministic and a probabilistic crack growth analysis is presented for the major defects found in the welds during ultrasonic pre-service inspection. The deterministic analysis includes first a determination of the number of load cycles until crack initiation, then a cycle-by-cycle calculation of the growth of the embedded elliptical cracks, followed by an evaluation of the growth of the semi-elliptical surface crack formed after the crack considered has broken through the wall and, finally, a determination of the critical crack size and shape. In the probabilistic analysis, a Monte-Carlo simulation is performed with a sample of cracks where the statistical distributions of the crack dimensions describe the uncertainty in sizing of the ultrasonic inspection. The distributions of crack depth, crack length and location are evaluated as a function of the number of load cycles. In the simulation, the fracture mechanics model of the deterministic analysis is employed for each random crack. The results of the deterministic and probabilistic crack growth analysis are compared with the results of the second in-service inspection where stable extension of some of the cracks had been observed. It is found that the prediction and the experiment agree only with a probability of the order of 5% or less