Economic consequences of evacuation in industrialised urban areas

Methods for estimating the economic consequences of evacuation in industrial areas are reviewed. The methods are not mutually exclusive, but one substituting for another according to evacuation duration. Results obtained for the same area using different methods are compared. When evacuation lasts one week, few economic losses may be expected even if the population moving out and temporary housing imply extraordinary expenses to local communities. When evacuation extends from a few weeks to some few months, the production decrease induces a loss of wealth; this loss may be estimated either by considering wages reduction or by using the loss of value added. Moreover, losses can be valued for the evacuation period only or can include delayed impacts. There is a factor of 2-3 between the various estimates for economic losses corresponding to a one month evacuation. For several months evacuation, simple methods which are presented here give only rough preliminary estimates. (author)