Climatic changes : the planet as a crystal ball

Climatology is a science that makes long term climate forecasts based on the intrinsic characteristics of the earth, the atmosphere, and the oceans. Scientists make use of computers to simulate the earth's mechanisms and to make forecasts, thereby creating a virtual planet. A wide variety of parameters are defined using thousands of lines of code, such as the earth's dimensions, oceans distribution, atmospheric composition, and the quantity of energy generated by the sun. When the sun's energy reaches the earth, it interacts with the surface, the oceans, ice, and vegetation, resulting in differential temperature increases. By varying the concentration of carbon dioxide in the virtual atmosphere, scientists can observe the effect of this variation in different regions of the world and predict the influence on precipitation. The manner in which human activity will progress in the next few decades is also being examined in order to estimate the quantities of carbon dioxide that will be emitted. Those numbers are integrated into the climatologists' computerized simulations. To date, there are approximately 15 global climate models, and about the same number of regional models. Scientists from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis division of Environment Canada, in Victoria have developed one of the most respected global climate models. Quebecers are also recognized for their expertise in developing regional models, such as the one developed at the University of Quebec in Montreal and Ouranos, which simulates the climate in North America over a 25-year period. It can also be used for any region of the planet. The model was validated through a series of exercises which used historical data to predict and confirm the outcome of past events. It is estimated that the temperature could rise by between 1.5 and 6 degrees C by 2100