Driving forces of CO2 emissions and energy intensity in Colombia

Highlights: • LMDI decomposition shows that energy intensity helped to limit emissions growth. • We transform final energy into primary energy requirements to analyze energy intensity. • Total energy intensity reduction was mainly due to sectoral energy intensity decrease. • Sectoral energy intensity drop is caused by transport and industry efficiency advance. • Industrial share decrease explains the reduction of the structural change effect. We analyze the driving factors of CO₂ emissions and energy intensity in Colombia during 1971–2017 and 1975–2016, respectively. We apply a factorial additive decomposition for CO₂ emissions, starting from the Kaya identity, using the logarithmic mean Divisia index method. The increase in emissions is mainly explained by the affluence and population effects, but is partially offset by the energy intensity effect and, to a lesser extent, the carbonization effect. We then analyze the driving factors of energy intensity with a multiplicative decomposition. We first transform final energy into its total primary energy requirements. The decrease in energy intensity is mainly due to the reduction in sectoral energy intensity and, to a lesser extent, to structural change. We analyze the contribution to both effects of the different sectors considered and relate them with the structural changes of the Colombian economy and the policies applied. The most important contributions to sectoral energy intensity reduction are the efficiency improvements in the transport and industry sectors, while the decrease in the share of industry is the most relevant component explaining the reduction of the structural change effect. The results provide useful information for the analysis and design of energy and environmental policies.