Extending CANTUP code analysis to probabilistic evaluations

The structural analysis with numerical methods based on final element method plays at present a central role in evaluations and predictions of structural systems which require safety and reliable operation in aggressive environmental conditions. This is the case too for the CANDU - 600 fuel channel, where besides the corrosive and thermal aggression upon the Zr97.5Nb2.5 pressure tubes, a lasting irradiation adds which has marked consequences upon the materials properties evolution. This results in an unavoidable spreading in the materials properties in time, affected by high uncertainties. Consequently, the deterministic evaluation with computation codes based on finite element method are supplemented by statistic and probabilistic methods of evaluation of the response of structural components. This paper reports the works on extending the thermo-mechanical evaluation of the fuel channel components in the frame of probabilistic structure mechanics based on statistical methods and developed upon deterministic CANTUP code analyses. CANTUP code was adapted from LAHEY 77 platform onto Microsoft Developer Studio - Fortran Power Station 4.0 platform. To test the statistical evaluation of the creeping behaviour of pressure tube, the value of longitudinal elasticity modulus (Young) was used, as random variable, with a normal distribution around value, as used in deterministic analyses. The influence of the random quantity upon the hog and effective stress developed in the pressure tube for to time values, specific to primary and secondary creep was studied. The results obtained after a five year creep, corresponding to the secondary creep are presented