Indicators and warnings: A framework for assessing the threat

The paper examines the utility of an 'indicators and warnings' framework for thinking through and responding to the associated threats of nuclear trafficking and nuclear terrorism in the context of 'a possible international strategy to prevent, detect and respond to this phenomenon.' The production of accurate and timely intelligence on these twin problems is obviously of central importance to all national, bilateral and multilateral responses designed to mitigate the threats posed in this area. A single and coherent 'international strategy to prevent, detect and respond' to the threat posed by nuclear trafficking and terrorism would certainly benefit from a common approach to the assessment of information and the generation of intelligence assessments and warnings. It is against this backdrop that the paper examines the utility of an indicators and warnings framework for thinking about the associated problems of nuclear trafficking and terrorism. The paper also addresses some of the challenges and problems associated with generating accurate indicators and warnings. (author)