Rupture Model Generator, Based on 1-Point and 2-Point Statistics of Earthquake Source Parameters, for Simulating Strong Ground Motions: Its Framework, Potential, and Future Directions

Accurate prediction of ground motion intensity and its variability is an important element in seismic hazard assessment. Simulation-based ground motion prediction has become popular recently, given fast growing computing capability and enough knowledge about the physics of earthquake rupture and wave propagation. Earthquake source process can play an important role in determining ground motion characteristics, in particular, in the near-source region for large events. This study aims to develop an efficient finite earthquake source modeling tool for simulating strong ground motions. Recently earthquake rupture model generator has been developed, based on 1-point and 2-point statistics of earthquake source parameters. Then a generalized source statistics model for the magnitude range of Mw 6.5 – 7.0 was developed by analyzing a number of (~150) spontaneous dynamic rupture models and simulated ground motions were tested against empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), following the guideline of the broadband platform project (BBP) of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The framework of 1-point and 2-point statistics in finite source modeling turns out to be efficient in generating physics-based source models in a statistically consistent manner and also in quantifying the variability of finite source models for a possible range of future events, in particular, 'aleatory uncertainty' of finite source models. In this article, various aspects of potential and challenges of the approach and its future directions are briefly addressed as well. (author)