Published June 2010 | Version v1
Journal article

On how to define, understand and describe risk

Creators

  • 1. University of Stavanger (Norway)

Description

The prevailing perspectives and definitions of risk, at least in the engineering community, are based on probabilities. In this paper we argue that such perspectives and definitions are too narrow. The probability component of the risk concept should be replaced by uncertainty. By jumping directly into probabilities, important uncertainty aspects could easily be overlooked or truncated. In the paper we point at several extended risk definitions, and a formal structure for the various perspectives and definitions is developed. Fundamental concepts such as second-order probabilities and uncertainties are discussed. Examples are provided showing the importance of the choice of risk perspective in a risk assessment and decision-making context. The examples cover offshore operations, security and market price risks.

Availability note (English)

Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2010.01.011

Additional details

Identifiers

DOI
10.1016/j.ress.2010.01.011;
PII
S0951-8320(10)00027-X;

Publishing Information

Journal Title
Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Journal Volume
95
Journal Issue
6
Journal Page Range
p. 623-631
ISSN
0951-8320
CODEN
RESSEP

INIS

Country of Publication
United Kingdom
Country of Input or Organization
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
INIS RN
41087967
Subject category
S02: PETROLEUM;
Descriptors DEI
DECISION MAKING; ENGINEERING; HAZARDS; MARKET; OFFSHORE OPERATIONS; PRICES; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SECURITY

Optional Information

Copyright
Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.