Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050. 2011 Edition

Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication - currently in its thirty first edition - containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050. RDS-1 starts with a summary of the situation of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2010. The data on nuclear power presented in Tables 1 and 2 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA's power Reactor Information System (pRIS). However, energy and electricity data for 2010 are estimated, as the latest information available from the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs is for 2008 only. population data originate from the world population prospects (2010 revision), published by the population Division of the united Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2010 values again are estimates. As in previous editions, projections of future energy and electricity demand and the role of nuclear power are presented as low and high estimates encompassing the inherent uncertainties involved in projecting trends. The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must be constantly subjected to critical review. Beginning with the 30th edition of this publication, however, the end-point of the estimates was extended up to the year 2050 (instead of 2030). Looking beyond 2030 has been prompted by the interest expressed by numerous Member States currently without nuclear power in adding nuclear energy to their future national energy supply mixes. Given the extensive lead times in planning and implementing nuclear power programmes, a fair share of these are likely to result in actual plant commissioning and grid connection after 2030. Many international, national and private organizations routinely engage in energy demand and supply projections, including nuclear power. These projections are based on a multitude of different assumptions and aggregating procedures, which make a straightforward comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input assumptions as: Economic growth; Correlation of economic growth and energy use; Technology performance and costs; Energy resource availability and future fuel prices; Energy policy and physical, environmental and economic constraints. The projections presented in this publication are based on a compromise between: National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study; Indicators of development published by the world Bank in its world Development Indicators; Global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations. Developing the 2011 nuclear power projections posed a considerable challenge. First the financial and economic crises that started in 2008 have not been overcome in many regions. Second, the Fukushima-Daiichi accident and its likely impact on future nuclear power development is difficult to foresee. The accident was a tragedy for the people affected and seriously undermined public confidence in the safety of nuclear power. A number of countries announced reviews of their programmes, some took steps toward phasing out nuclear power entirely, and others re-emphasized their expansion plans. Third, a new international environmental agreement on the regulation of greenhouse gases replacing the Kyoto protocol that would make the climate benefits of nuclear energy financially visible to investors is still being negotiated.