Is nuclear energy doomed?

According to economists the part of nuclear energy in electricity production in France could be drastically reduced by 2020. The life span of a nuclear power plant unit is between 30 or 40 years, so in 2005 France will be confronted to the replacement of the first PWRs. 3 prospective lines have been drawn. The first and the third one are based on an interventionist state whose aim is to secure the interests of the nation in a long term range. In these both cases nuclear energy could maintain its leading position. The second line is based on a market economy which generally favours short term investments. In this case natural gas could become the first source of energy by 2020 with a part of 62%, whereas nuclear energy would drop to 13%. Today the part of natural gas in energy production is growing fast worldwide. Technological progress has led to combined cycle gas turbines (TAG-CC) that operate at very high temperature and wield a 50% yield. In experimental installations the yield can even reach 80%. (A.C.)