Safety case, safety analysis and scenarios. Actual developments according to the evaluation of long-term safety of final disposal sites indeep geological formations

The contribution deals with the methodology for analysis of the safety of ultimate storage facilities in deep geological formations after their closure (long-term safety). In particular the derivation of scenarios as an important basis of the safety analysis is examined. Due to different regulations, host rocks and ultimate storage concepts variations in the approach applied in different countries are unavoidable and incalculable. However, there are also numerous basic common features, which are outlined in the contribution. The question of the methodology of modern safety analysis is of special interest for Germany, because a ''Provisional safety analysis for Gorleben'' is currently being devised. (orig.)