From technology platforms to roadmaps - Getting there

Full text: The process of developing a technology roadmap for hydrogen is by no means fixed - various approaches, methodologies and tools are available to achieve the same end: a clear strategy with concrete, implementable steps to be taken by specific actor groups on a defined timescale. This paper uses the development of a hydrogen roadmap in Portugal as a case study to illustrate a possible approach. The methodology and tools used are described and appraised, highlighting key advantages and challenges. The methodology adopted in Portugal began with a purely qualitative vision building and analysis component (the Hi-Po project), prior to the development of the actual roadmap under the EDEN project. The latter uses a variety of quantitative computer models, as well as more qualitative stakeholder consultation to assess the potential impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy (under four possible scenarios of market penetration of hydrogen technologies). The steps of the EDEN methodology can be summarised as follows: - Review of key hydrogen futures literature; - Choice of tools to analyse impacts; - Definition of scope of analysis: the impact of introducing hydrogen in passenger road transport, and domestic combined heat and power, is assessed; - Set-up of a group of key stakeholders, with representation from all the sectors which would be most affected by and have most effect on, the transition to a hydrogen economy; - Creation of a baseline scenario - business as usual situation in the country without a policy specifically aiming to introduce hydrogen; - Development, in consultation with the stakeholder group, of a shared vision for hydrogen in Portugal, including the technologies to be used for production, distribution and use of hydrogen, and the degree of penetration of these technologies into the economy under various scenarios; - Analysis of these scenarios using the chosen tools; - Presentation of preliminary results to the stakeholder group, and refinement of vision based on these results; - Re-analysis of updated vision; - Collation of final results; - Analysis of final results, and creation of policy actions to be taken to make the most of opportunities and avoid potential pitfalls. (authors)