LNG as a strategy to establish developing countries' gas markets: The Brazilian case

This paper aims to evaluate, from a Brazilian case study, if the natural gas trade can be viewed as a good opportunity for developing countries located geographically close to Western Europe and North America gas markets. Initially, the paper presents an overview of the Brazilian natural gas industry and evaluates the balance between supply and demand in each main region of Brazil. Then, it analyzes the evolution of the international gas trade, which is expected to increase rapidly (LNG particularly). Finally, the paper analyses the financial viability of the Brazilian LNG project in a context of high volatility of natural gas prices in the international market. To take this uncertainty into account, North-American natural gas prices are modelled according to the ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK process (with EIA data over the period 1985-2003). By using an approach based on Monte-Carlo simulations and under the assumption that imports are guaranteed since the North American gas price would be higher than the breakeven of the Brazilian project, the model aims to test the hypothesis that export can promote the development of the Brazilian Northeastern gas market. LNG project is here compared to the Petrobras pipelines project, which is considered as the immediate solution for the Northeastern gas shortage. As a conclusion, this study shows that the LNG export will be vulnerable to the risks associated to the natural gas prices volatility observed on the international market