Problems of methodics: Are they a reason for our continuing to consider trends on the basis of the status quo?

The paper looks into the following questions: Differences of energy demand between the developments of reference and the phaseout variant; technologically oriented estimation methods - higher forecasting certainty for the 90s and cause of estimating errors in the next century; inadequate consideration of the structural change of industry - danger of overrating specific energy demand; varying consideration of price reactions in quantiative analyses - scientifically motivated precaution as a factor paving the way for faulty forecasts. (orig./HSCH)