Application of Fire Modeling Uncertainty Analysis to the Determination of Cable Failure

Recently USNRC published NUREG-1934 which presents a model uncertainty analysis method for a fire simulation. In NUREG-1934, the need for addressing input parameter uncertainty in a fire simulation is mentioned, but only a sensitivity analysis is suggested as a way of assessing input parameter uncertainty. In this paper, an input parameter uncertainty was performed using the Monte Carlo simulation and the Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) technique, and the results were compared with those of the model uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis approaches of NUREG-1934. The simulated sample problem was the cabinet fire in a motor control center in a switchgear room, presented in Appendix D of NUREG-1934, and Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) 5.5 was used for the fire simulation. The purpose of the fire simulation is to determine whether cables within cable trays can be damaged in the simulated fire scenario