A framework of dynamic analysis for risks asociated with human activity at radioactive waste disposal sites

Human intrusive actions at radioactive waste disposal sites which cause radiological impact were identified in connection with other events and processes on the influence diagram. The scenarios of less likely events including human intrusive actions were generated from the diagram and then treated by probabilistic way. For assigning probabilities of events dynamically, simultaneous difference equations were introduced and simple general solutions which satisfy the equations were used to illustrate the example calculations for both direct and indirect impacts by human intrusive actions such as drilling/mining and pumping of groundwater. The method developed here will be useful for both scenario screening in overall scenario study and risk calculation combined with consequence analysis