Evaluating the relationship between temporal changes in land use and resulting water quality

Highlights: • Influence of land use change on surface water quality was investigated using BNs. • Cross-sectional and longitudinal data analyses generated different outcomes. • BN modelling indicates the lack of robustness in cross-sectional data analysis. • Anthropogenic activities influence water quality than temporal changes in land use. Changes in land use have a direct impact on receiving water quality. Effective mitigation strategies require the accurate prediction of water quality in order to enhance community well-being and ecosystem health. The research study employed Bayesian Network modelling to investigate the validity of using cross-sectional and longitudinal data on water quality and land use for predicting water quality in a mixed use catchment and the role it plays in the generation of blue-green algae in the receiving marine environment. Bayesian Network modelling showed that cross-sectional and longitudinal data analyses generate contrasting information about the influence of different land uses on surface water pollution. The modelling outcomes highlighted the lack of reliability in cross-sectional data analysis, based on the indication of spurious relationships between water quality and land use. On the other hand, the longitudinal data analysis, which accounted for changes in water quality and land use over a ten-year period, informed how catchment water quality varies in response to temporal changes in land use. The longitudinal data analysis further revealed that the types of anthropogenic activities have a more significant influence on pollutant generation than the change in the area extent of different land uses over time. Therefore, the careful interpretation of the findings derived solely from cross-sectional data analysis is important in the design of long-term strategies for pollution mitigation.