Carbon emission reductions under global low-carbon technology transfer and its policy mix with R&D improvement

Highlights: • Bottom-up technology transfer mode was integrated into top-down IAM. • 2 °C target can be achieved by combining technology transfer and R&D. • Technology transfer between developed countries has great reduction potential. • Transfer to developed countries is mainly hindered by institutional barrier. • Developing countries are more sensitive to the improvement of R&D. In this study, we have developed a new integrated assessment model named CIECIA-TD to study the carbon reductions and climatic and economic impacts of global low-carbon technology transfer and its policy mix with R&D improvement. Compared with its base model, CIECIA, CIECIA-TD comprises a bottom-up technology transfer and diffusion mode for depicting the individual technology transfer behaviours. The results show that the technology transfer has significant reduction and warming mitigation effects. However, it is insufficient for achieving the 2 °C mitigation goal. The technologies transfer frequently between developed countries, achieving significant carbon reductions when the low-carbon technologies are fully shared around the world, whereas reductions of developing countries are mainly limited by their knowledge stocks and R&D investments. Climate policy mix that combines technology transfer and R&D improvement can achieve the 2 °C mitigation target. However, the economic benefits of countries are eroded as the price of global warming mitigation under this policy mix.