Total Monte-Carlo method applied to the assessment of uncertainties in a reactivity-initiated accident

The Total Monte-Carlo (TMC) method has been applied extensively since 2008 to propagate the uncertainties in nuclear data for reactor parameters and fuel inventory, and for several types of advanced nuclear systems. The analyses have been performed considering different levels of complexity, ranging from a single fuel rod to a full 3-D reactor core at steady-state. The current work applies the TMC method for a full 3-D pressurized water reactor core model under steady-state and transient conditions, considering thermal-hydraulic feedback. As a transient scenario the study focused on a reactivity-initiated accident, namely a control rod ejection accident initiated by a mechanical failure of the control rod drive mechanism. The uncertainties on the main reactor parameters due to variations in nuclear data for the isotopes ²³⁵,²³⁸U, ²³⁹Pu and thermal scattering data for ¹H in water were quantified. (author)