Estimated consequences from severe spent nuclear fuel transportation accidents

The RISKIND software package is used to estimate radiological consequences of severe accident scenarios involving the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. Radiological risks are estimated for both a collective population and a maximally exposed individual based on representative truck and rail cask designs described in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) modal study. The estimate of collective population risk considers all possible environmental pathways, including acute and long-term exposures, and is presented in terms of the 50-y committed effective dose equivalent. Radiological risks to a maximally exposed individual from acute exposure are estimated and presented in terms of the first year and 50-y committed effective dose equivalent. Consequences are estimated for accidents occurring in rural and urban population areas. The modeled pathways include inhalation during initial passing of the radioactive cloud, external exposure from a reduction of the cask shielding, long-term external exposure. from ground deposition, and ingestion from contaminated food (rural only). The major pathways and contributing radionuclides are identified, and the effects of possible mitigative actions are discussed. The cask accident responses and the radionuclide release fractions are modeled as described in the NRC modal study. Estimates of severe accident probabilities are presented for both truck and rail modes of transport. The assumptions made in this study tend to be conservative; however, a set of multiplicative factors are identified that can be applied to estimate more realistic conditions