Climate change impact on the river runoff: regional study for the Central Asian Region

The water resources of the Aral Sea Basin are jointly used by the Central Asian states. The river flow is concentrated in the two largest transboundary rivers: the Amudarya and Syrdarya Rivers, which run down from the mountains to the plains, cross the deserts and flow into the Aral Sea. Uzbekistan is the major water consumer in the Aral Sea Basin. In accordance with interstate agreements, on average 43-52 km2 of water per year as allotted for use by Uzbekistan from the boundary rivers. About 90% of river flow is formed beyond Uzbekistan boundaries. Under current conditions, water resource shortages in Uzbekistan, even a small but stable reduction of these resources presents a drastic problem. The degree of impact of possible climate changes on the regime of mountain rivers of the Central Asia can be evaluated by sufficiently reliable mathematical models of the runoff formation in mountains. The basic mathematical model describes a complete cycle of the runoff formation, reflecting the main factors and processes: precipitation, dynamics of a snow cover, evaporation, contribution of melting and rain water to the catchment, glacial runoff, runoff transformation and losses in basin. The model complex consists of the model Of snow cover formation in the mountains basin, model of glacial runoff and model of snow melt and rainfall water inflow transformation in runoff. Model calculations of snow reserves in the mountains under different climatic scenarios have demonstrated their gradual decrease due to growing aridity of the climate. Contribution of the snow is expected to decrease by 15-30%1 especially for rivers, which are snow-fed. At present, the annual glacial runoff of the rivers of the Syrdarya River basin amounts to 8-15%. Under different prognoses,,, increase in this flow of up to 20% is expected. Contribution of glacial runoff to the rivers of the Amudarya River basin might grow 32-39% under the most 'severe' climatic scenarios. During the cropping season, an increase is expected in evaporation from water surfaces of 15-20%. The most severe and climate conditions in the watershed area were predicted under the CCCM model. According to this model, if CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled, then the runoffs of the Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers are expected to be reduced by 28 and 40%, respectively. According to GFDL and GISS scenarios, presented.(Author)e experiencethe catchment area would increase by 3-4oC and average annual precipitation volume by 10-15%. Under these scenarios, one could expect that no significant reduction in the Amudarya and Syrdarya runoff would occur. An air temperature rise of 1-2oC will intensify the process of ice degradation. In 1957-180 glaciers in the Aral Sea river basins lost 115.5 km3 Of ice (approximately 104 km3 of water), which constituted almost 20 per cent of the 1957 ice reserve. By 2000 another 14 per cent of the 1957 reserve were lost. By 2020 glaciers will lose at least another 10 per cent of their initial volume. Calculations of regional climatic scenarios by the year 2030 also indicate persistence of present runoff volumes accompanied by an increase in fluctuations from year. Longer-term assessments are more pessimistic, since, along with increasing evaporation, water resource inputs (snow and glaciers in the mountains) are continuously shrinking. (Author)