Real time physics-based solar wind forecasts for SafeSpace

We present the solar wind forecast module to be implemented on the Sun – interplanetary space – Earth's magnetosphere chain of the H2020 SafeSpace project. The wind modelling pipeline, developed at the IRAP, performs real-time robust simulations (forward modelling) of the physical processes that determine the state of the solar wind from the surface of the Sun up to the L1 point. The pipeline puts together different mature research models: determination of the background coronal magnetic field, computation of many individual solar wind acceleration profiles (1 to 90 solar radii), propagation across the heliosphere and formation of CIRs (up to 1 AU or more), estimation of synthetic diagnostics (white-light and EUV imaging, in-situ time-series) and comparison to observations and spacecraft measurements. Different magnotograms sources (WSO, SOLIS, GONG, ADAPT) can be combined, as well as coronal field reconstruction methods (PFSS, NLFFF), wind models (MULTI-VP), and heliospheric propagation models (CDPP/AMDA 1D MHD, ENLIL, EUHFORIA). We provide a web-based service that continuously supplies a full set of bulk physical parameters (wind speed, density, temperature, magnetic field, phase speeds) of the solar wind up to 6-7 days in advance, at a time cadence compatible with space weather applications.