Systemic Modeling for the diagnosis of the interaction climate-malaria in Colombia, application during El Nino 1997-1998 and La Nina 1998-2000

A vector-borne disease model has been developed to represent the entomological, epidemiological and climatic interactions of malaria transmission conductive to disease outbreaks in Nuqui prone-region, Choco province, along the pacific Colombian coast. Considering breeding place availability model and several predator-prey-food models allow us to represent the vectorial densities fluctuations observed during the field's campaigns. The comprehensive model has been applied to represent malaria incidence during the period Nov/1997-Feb/2001 (1200 days simulation period), when both El Nino and la Nina events strongly affected the hydro-climatology of Colombia. The model has been run for observed climatic patterns such as mean daily temperatures, total daily precipitation records, and mean daily relative humidities gathered by a nearby climatological station. Diverse temperature scenarios have been considered to deepen the understanding of the entomological-climatic linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks. Sensitivity analysis and instabilities cases have been also studied during the experimentation-validation processes. Obtained results allow us to conclude that the model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the ecological, entomological, and epidemiological linkages conductive to malaria outbreaks