Iran. Nuclear crisis: towards an overrun?

In this article, the author first shows that the Iranian crisis is a failure of the struggle against nuclear proliferation as Iran seems to possess the technical and scientific abilities to produce nuclear weapons on a medium term. He also notices that this crisis is characterised by a deadlock of legal mechanisms of control of the Iranian nuclear programme: despite UN resolutions and sanctions, the IAEA will not be able able to visit Iranian facilities until Iran decides to enter negotiations again, and the decision by the UN of military actions seems not very likely, at least because of the opposition of China and Russia. In the second part, the author analyses the strategic and geopolitical stakes of the Iranian crisis: the will of Iran to become a regional leader and to counterbalance the Israeli nuclear deterrence, differences of regional interests between western countries, domestic evolutions in Iran. According to the author, both parties share a common interest in a smooth crisis recovery