Prognostic criteria in acute pancreatitis: importance of assessment of pancreatic necrosis by contrast-enhanced CT

To compare the value of the clinical criteria of Ranson, the classical tomographic criteria of Balthzar and the severity of illness index according to CT in predicting the development of complications of acute pancreatitis. A retrospective study was performed in 100 patients with clinical and analytical evidence of acute pancreatitis. All patients were assessed according to Ranson score at admission and 48 hours later, and contrast-enhanced abdominal CT was carried out. The tomographic images were analyzed on the basis of the classical criteria of Balthazar and the new CT severity of illness index, which includes the assessment of pancreatic necrosis, identified as the areas of the pancreas that are not enhanced by the administration of the contrast material. These three criteria were then correlated with onset of medical and surgical implications. Our findings show that, of the three criteria analyzed, the CT severity of illness index presents the greatest specificity, sensitivity and positive and negative predictive values in the prediction of complications of acute pancreatitis. We conclude that the inclusion of pancreatic necrosis in the tomographic study improves the early assessment of the prognosis of acute pancreatitis. (Author) 20 refs