Influence of aerosol particles, clouds, and condensation trails on the climate in Bavaria

Human interventions in the climate system occur mainly through the emission of trace gases and aerosol particles. Emissions of aerosol particles can also change the properties of clouds. Climate model calculations have shown that an increase in trace gas concentrations causes the lower atmosphere to warm. According to numerical studies performed during the past few years, anthropogenic aerosol sources can have a cooling effect which is of the same order as the warming caused by greenhouse gases. However, due to their differing time constants and spatial characteristics the two effects are unlikely to neutralise each other over extended regions for any length of time. The currently available models with their very coarse spatial resolution are not suitable for making climatological predictions for Bavaria on the basis of cloud or aerosol properties. What can be done at present is to formulate warnings and propose measures for reducing environmental hazards and conserving our natural surroundings as far as possible. (orig.)