Diffusion of nuclear power generation in the United States

This dissertation is a study of nuclear power as an innovation diffusing through the utility industry in the United States. Chapter 1 notes that the industry studied, the innovation and the diffusion process have several characteristics not typical of the classical diffusion of innovations literature in economics. Uncertainty about the true characteristics of the innovation persists well into the diffusion process. The characteristics of the innovation appear to change over time. Thus the classic S-shaped transition path from the old, pre-innovation equilibrium to a new post-diffusion equilibrium is not found for this innovation and this industry. A generalized diffusion model is developed in Chapter 1 which allows these peculiarities of the utility industry and of nuclear power to be taken into account. Chapter 2 traces the development of the innovation, the consequences of the demonstration plant program, and the history of the diffusion process from 1963 to the present. Chapter 3 analyses the structure and sources and consequences of regulation of the industry. Chapter 4 develops a logit discrete choice model of the adoption decision. Chapter 5 investigates the determinants of the proportion of industry output provided by nuclear plants using a modified version of the Baughman--Joskow Regional Electricity Model. Salient aspects of uncertainty shift the expected average cost of nuclear plant output in the modified model