Analysis of error in Monte Carlo transport calculations

The Monte Carlo method for neutron transport calculations suffers, in part, because of the inherent statistical errors associated with the method. Without an estimate of these errors in advance of the calculation, it is difficult to decide what estimator and biasing scheme to use. Recently, integral equations have been derived that, when solved, predicted errors in Monte Carlo calculations in nonmultiplying media. The present work allows error prediction in nonanalog Monte Carlo calculations of multiplying systems, even when supercritical. Nonanalog techniques such as biased kernels, particle splitting, and Russian Roulette are incorporated. Equations derived here allow prediction of how much a specific variance reduction technique reduces the number of histories required, to be weighed against the change in time required for calculation of each history. 1 figure, 1 table