Materials availability for large-scale thin-film photovoltaics

The objective of this paper is to discuss to what extent materials availability could restrain the expansion of PV systems based on CdTe, CIGS, aSiGe and nanocrystalline dye-sensitised cells. The investigated elements are cadmium, tellurium, indium, gallium, selenium, germanium and ruthenium. Materials requirement, annual availability and available stock of resources are assessed. The material constrained growth of installed capacity in the year 2020 is estimated at about 20 GWp/year for CdTe and dye-sensitise cells, 70 GWp/year for CIGS and 200 GWp/year for aSiGe. These potentials are reached through decreased materials requirement and increased materials availability. Metal prices are assumed to rise. With pessimistic assumptions, the potential decrease by one or two orders of magnitude. Implications for public policy and firm strategy are briefly discussed. (Author)