Long-term global trade-offs related to nuclear energy

An overall comparative assessment of different energy systems and their potential long-term role in contributing to a sustainable energy mix is examined through the use of a global, long-term Energy, Economies, Environment (E³) model. This model is used to generate a set of surprise-free futures that encompass a range of economic potentialities. The focus of this study is nuclear energy (NE), and the range of possible futures embodies extrema ranging from NE growth [a Basic Option (BO)] to an NE Phase Out (PO). These NE scenario extrema are expressed against a background that reflects E³ circumstances ranging from a Business-As-Usual (BAU) to one that is Ecologically Driven (ED), with the latter emphasizing price-induced reductions in greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions associate with a mix of fossil energy sources. Hence, four 'views-of-the- future' scenarios emerge to form the framework of this study: BAU/BO, BAU/PO, ED/BO, and ED/PO. Model results ranging from (regional and temporal) primary- and nuclear-energy demands, carbon-dioxide emissions, nuclear-material (plutonium) accumulations and attendant proliferation-risk implications, Gross National Product (GNP) impacts, and a spectrum of technology requirements provide essential input to the subject assessment