Detection and mapping of long-term land degradation and desertification in Arab region using MODESERT

This paper presents the definition and formulation of a remotely sensed based monitoring system for land degradation and desertification. The main objective of this system is to identify processes of land degradation and desertification sensitive areas at regional scale. The proposed methodology relies on the use of time series NDVI images generated from remote sensing satellites for the regional assessment and monitoring of vegetation dynamics. Parametric model based on ordinary least-squares regression was developed and implemented through the use of MODESERT, an open-source software developed by the National Council for Scientific Research in Lebanon (CNRS). The study area covers the entire Arab World. Long term trends were derived using the GIMMS NDVI data set over the time period between 1982 and 2006. It is the longest series of NDVI product covering our regions. Three main classes, subdivided into seven groups,were established representing: moderately to highly sensitive areas, areas with no-significant change, moderately to highly developed areas. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to estimate the accuracy of the trend model; it generated a mean error at5-10%. Results indicatedthat more than 40% of the total MENA region weresensitive to land degradation and desertification. In contrast,only less than 5% of the region had witnessed positive changes in vegetation cover. The major drivers ofland degradation were mainly linked to climate variability and recurring drought and to less extent their sub-drivers such as forest firesand the poor socio economic development. Development in vegetation cover was found to occur at larger scalesin Southern Somalia, Sudan and Southern Iraq marshlands.This method could be applied to nationalscaleassessment. Using others satellites images (e.g. SPOT Vegetation, MOD13Q1, etc...) has alsopotential.This monitoring system is operational since 2007 and was validated through the publication of the biennial ArabDesertificationBulletin. (author)