Calculational methods for power capability studies

A formulation is developed to study reactor power capability based on the likelihood of incipient centerline fuel melting. Attention is also directed to the proper definition of this likelihood. As a consequence, it is shown how to compute the total probability for fuel melting as well as the expected number of fuel pellets and the associated variance. Factors considered include statistical variations in pellet fissile densities, gap sizes, coolant temperatures, reactor power, and the power-to-melt function. General formulas suitable for computation are given along with more transparent analytical results