Evaluation of scenarios for energy systems. Potentials, limits and acceptance

In contrast to previous approaches in connection with the energy transition, the dissertation leads to a change of perspective towards social consideration. Previous scenario studies focused on technical feasibility as well as individual cost and environmental aspects, as shown in the pre-analysis. Society plays a secondary role in this case. Instead of being taken into account in the prior decision-making process, time and effort are often invested in the downstream conviction of the population only after that. The approach pursued in the work consistently focuses on incorporating social preferences and barriers into the decision-making process in advance, so that decisions themselves have lasting validity. Representative telephone surveys are used to determine the preferences of the population on the one hand and the limits of acceptance in the form of willingness to pay on the other hand. Only then are scenario calculations carried out in order to be able to quantitatively evaluate energy policy options for action. In the subsequent comparison of social barriers and model results, however, the limits of this approach are also made clear: a desired action option from the perspective of the population (here the brown coal exit) can also fail because of political and legal barriers.