Fossil energy subsidies in China's modern coal chemical industry

Highlights: • It's the first time coal subsidy in China's coal chemical industry is measured. • Three schemes of implicit subsidization are disclosed. • A systematic framework for sub-national energy subsidy measurement is introduced. • The impact of the excessive subsidy is assessed. -- Abstract: The issue of whether there is a fossil energy subsidy in China's modern coal chemical (MCC) sector remains controversial, although domestic coal prices have been liberalized since 2013. To identify potential fossil energy subsidies in the MCC industry, an inventory approach is used in subsidy measurement. Three representative forms of coal consumption subsidization are identified and measured in this paper: feed coal supply at a preferential price, prior access to coal mining rights, and privilege in coalmine M&A (mergers and acquisitions) cases. Using China's coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry as a case study, we find that the current subsidy helps save 50% of the coal consumption cost of a typical plant, and the total amount of subsidy in the CTL industry will reach 16.4 billion Yuan in 2022. However, according to the results of efficiency, wastefulness and effectiveness tests, 47.03% of the current subsidy in the industry is excessive, leading to overinvestment and energy waste. To compensate for the deficiency of the subsidizing mechanism, we suggest replacing subsidizing channels that rely on mining rights concessions or M&A cases with channels using long-term coal supply contracts that couple contract prices and oil prices.