East Europe's energy trade takes new shape

Often in the past, Western analysts of global energy demand have treated Eastern Europe as just part of a black box labeled Communist. Only the net flow of energy to the non-Communist world was of any consequence. The region, although primarily a major net importer of energy from the Soviet Union, was a very small net exporter of energy to non-Communist countries based Polish coal exports. Romanian refined petroleum product exports, and some minor exports of refined products by other East European countries. The political and economic configurations of Eastern Europe has changed dramatically over the past 2 years, however, and the way in which East European energy relationships are considered will have to change accordingly. With the sweeping transformation of these economies (for the most part, radically in the direction of a market orientation) and the breakup of their unique system of mutual trade, the patterns of energy production, consumption, and trade which have prevailed in the region during the post-war period will also change significantly. Forecasting the net-impact on energy demand in this region of offsetting trends due to economic reform (i.e., renewed economic dynamism vs. decreased energy intensity of aggregate economic output) is a very difficult task. Moreover, there are additional complications introduced by changes in the political system, such as the increased importance of environmental quality in the choice of fuel and production technology due to clearly enunciated concern of the popular political movements with these issues