Calculating uncertainty on K-effective with MONK10 - 14583

Criticality safety assessments require a demonstration that a particular configuration of fissile material has an adequate sub-critical margin (k-effective sufficiently below unity) to ensure that the risk of criticality under normal operation and accident conditions is acceptable. The required sub-critical margin depends upon the uncertainty in the estimated value of k-effective. The uncertainty in the calculated value of k-effective arises from a number of sources, including: manufacturing tolerances on input data to the code (affecting geometry, compositions and densities), uncertainty in the nuclear data used by the code, stochastic uncertainty resulting from Monte Carlo simulation and modelling approximations/errors, including the inevitable bugs in the software. The ANSWERS Software Service, in collaboration with industrial partners, is developing a number of techniques to better understand and quantify uncertainty on predicted values of k-effective, using MONK. The SPRUCE utility code has been developed to allow uncertainty to be estimated using sampling methods. This can include the sampling of input parameters (including dimensions, compositions and densities) from statistical distributions. It can also include sampling different nuclear data libraries. A set of nuclear data libraries has been generated for this purpose by sampling from statistical distributions that represent the uncertainties in the published nuclear data evaluated files; a set of libraries has been produced for Latin Hypercube Sampling. By varying the input data and nuclear data, separate and combined uncertainties due to manufacturing tolerances and nuclear data can be derived. By performing least squares fitting on the results it is also possible to estimate the contribution of each of the uncertain inputs and a sensitivity method in MONK can break down the nuclear data uncertainty. (authors)