Developing a thermal stress map of Iran through modeling a combination of bioclimatic indices

Thermal stress poses significant direct and indirect risks to human health. Under climate change, both mean temperature and the frequency and intensity of extreme thermal stress events are projected to increase. Located within an arid to semi-arid region, Iran is anticipated to experience particularly intense temperature and humidity changes under climate change, potentially heightening the public health challenges associated with thermal stress. To facilitate improved adaptation to these thermal threats, accurate high spatial resolution thermal heat stress risk maps are important. This study combines various climate indices to produce such a thermal stress risk map for the reference period 1980–2010, with RCP4.5 projections for the period 2020–2049. Although the results of the various indices are statistically significantly correlated, each index returned a remarkably different spatial distribution and risk classification. Therefore, a fuzzy approach was followed through a geographical information system (GIS) to combine the results of the five bioclimatic indices and prepare a final thermal stress risk map. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the results indicate a notable 24.5% reduction in the areas susceptible to thermal stress at the high-risk and very high–risk levels, compared with the reference period. The lowest projected risk is for the central parts of Iran, while the southern and northern coasts of Iran were the zones of the highest risk, for which adaptation responses are most necessary.