Assessment of effects of climate change on catastrophic floods in mountain

The method, which has united model of formation thawed and rainfall runoff in river basins and a way of designing of the meteorological scenarios, simulating climate change, was applied to realization of these researches. The decisions of three hydrological tasks was taken into consideration: 1) estimation of runoff reaction of on uniform within a year increase or downturn of air temperature in limits of ±2oC; 2) estimation of runoff reaction on strengthening climate continentality - downturn of air temperature during snow cover accumulation (cold period) and the increase of air temperature in warm period (includes the period of snow melting) at preservation of annual air temperature at a modern level; 3) revealing of meteorological conditions leading to occurrence of danger on water object in the case of climate change. The mountain's rivers of Tien Shan, Altai and Urals were investigated. The strengthening of climate continentality can result (with other equal conditions) in occurrence of catastrophic situations at increase of average height of basin and simultaneous increase of precipitation, as the maximal discharge can grow 8-10 times. The reaction of plane rivers much less and the maximum discharges grow 3-4 times.(Author)