Dynamic analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in China's petroleum refining and coking industry

Highlights: • The CO₂ emissions in China's PRCI were dynamically analyzed. • Possible CO₂ emissions were predicted by a probabilistic scenario analysis. • Investment scale expansion was the principal promoter in emissions growth. • Investment efficiency decline contributed most to emission abatement. • CO₂ emissions intensity in 2030 can drop by 69% to 72% compared with the 2005 level. -- Abstract: As one of the energy-intensive industries, the CO₂ emissions of China's petroleum refining and coking industry (PRCI) put significant pressure on China's emission reduction target. Considering this, the main purpose of this paper is to clarify the determinants of emission growth in China's PRCI and predict the emissions change trend in future. Based on an extended Kaya identity, this paper dynamically analyzed the impacts of investment scale, investment efficiency, energy intensity, energy structure and carbon dioxide emission factor on CO₂ emissions from China's PRCI. Then, the possible CO₂ emissions of China's PRCI in 2030 were dynamically predicted based on the application of probabilistic scenario analysis. The main findings include: (1) during 2000–2016, China's PRCI suffered 130.82 million tons CO₂ emissions growth, investment scale expansion was the principal contributor stimulating CO₂ emissions. Fortunately, the promoting effects exerted from this factor showed a downtrend along with the decreasing fixed-asset investment growth rate since China's economy has entered a new normal. (2) During the entire study period, energy structure adjustment brought about a mild increase in CO₂ emissions rather than taking an active role in emission abatement. (3) Investment efficiency and energy intensity were two crucial inhibitors, followed by the carbon dioxide emission factor. However, the inhibiting effects resulting from these factors cannot completely counteract the promoting effects in most cases. (4). Scenario analysis indicates that the mitigation pathway of CO₂ emissions in China's PRCI include properly curbing the fixed-asset investment, increasing the green investment for technology and equipment, paying more attention to the R&D of energy saving technology in PRCI and its downstream industry, and facilitating the use of clean electricity.