Social-economic assessment of different programs of energy saving certificates - Working document n. 11, October 2009

After a presentation of the energy saving certificate arrangement (principle, determination of objectives per energy, determination of objectives per energy provider, scope of actions, certificate market, assessment of the first program which concerned the 2006-2009 period), this publication proposes an assessment of energy saving certificate programs with a presentation of the methodology of measurement of costs and benefits of the program (cost of usual energy saving operations, relationship between the economic environment and the future price of energies, CO₂ content of energies), and a discussion of costs and benefits of the first program. It reports a predictive assessment of future energy certificate programs: exploration of an ambitious objective for certificates, description and discussion of various behaviour scenarios corresponding to different levels of energy savings over three years, assessment of a moderated objective or of a longer duration of the certificate mechanism period, study of the sensitivity of results to oil price. Industrial stakes associated with the certificate arrangement are finally discussed