Modeling the impacts of constant price GDP and population on CO2 emissions using Cobb-Douglas model and ant colony optimization algorithm

The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures a country's economic growth. Increasing GDP is a dream of all countries, but generally, GDP increases often have a negative impact with increasing CO₂ emissions. This paper intends to model the impact of GDP growth based on constant prices and the population in increasing CO₂ emissions in Indonesia. Modeling is done by using Cobb-Douglas model production function, where parameter estimation is done by using ant colony optimization algorithm. Furthermore, model estimators are used for forecasting CO₂ emission concentrations. The results of the analysis show that the impact of GDP based on constant prices and population significantly follows the Cobb-Douglas model of production, with the coefficient of elasticity is 0.819405999 and 0.834930855, respectively. The value of determination was obtained at 97.4%, indicating that the correlation between GDP at constant prices and population with increasing CO₂ emissions in air is very strong. Estimator model obtained has a level of accuracy for forecasting is 0.98478981 or 98.4798981%. Thus, the model estimator obtained is able to describe the actual data pattern. (paper)