The linear hypothesis - an idea whose time has passed

The linear no-threshold hypothesis is the basis for radiation protection standards in the United States. In the words of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP), the hypothesis is: open-quotes In the interest of estimating effects in humans conservatively, it is not unreasonable to follow the assumption of a linear relationship between dose and effect in the low dose regions for which direct observational data are not available.close quotes The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) stated the hypothesis in a slightly different manner: open-quotes One such basic assumption ... is that ... there is ... a linear relationship without threshold between dose and the probability of an effect. The hypothesis was necessary 50 yr ago when it was first enunciated because the dose-effect curve for ionizing radiation for effects in humans was not known. The ICRP and NCRP needed a model to extrapolate high-dose effects to low-dose effects. So the linear no-threshold hypothesis was born. Certain details of the history of the development and use of the linear hypothesis are presented. In particular, use of the hypothesis by the U.S. regulatory agencies is examined. Over time, the sense of the hypothesis has been corrupted. The corruption of the hypothesis into the current paradigm of open-quote a little radiation, no matter how small, can and will harm youclose quotes is presented. The reasons the corruption occurred are proposed. The effects of the corruption are enumerated, specifically, the use of the corruption by the antinuclear forces in the United States and some of the huge costs to U.S. taxpayers due to the corruption. An alternative basis for radiation protection standards to assure public safety, based on the weight of scientific evidence on radiation health effects, is proposed