Sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN 4 input parameters

The transportation risk analysis code, RADTRAN 4, computer estimates of incident-free dose consequence and accident dose-risk. The output of the code includes a tabulation of sensitivity of the result to variation of the input parameters for the incident-free analysis. The values are calculated using closed mathematical expressions derived from the constitutive equations, which are linear. However, the equations for accident risk are not linear, in general, and a similar tabulation has not been available. Because of the importance of knowing how accident-risk estimates are affected by uncertainties in the input parameters, a direct investigation was undertaken of the variation in calculated accident dose-risk with changes in individual parameters. A limited, representative group of transportation scenarios was used, initially, to determine which of 23 accident-risk parameters affect the calculated accident dose risk significantly. Many of the parameters were observed to have minimal effect on the output, and others were judged as ''fixed'' either by regulation, convention or standards. The remaining 5 variables were selected for further study through Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). LHS yields statistical information from observations (risk calculations) resulting from multiple input-parameter sets compiled from ''random'' sampling of parameter distributions. The LHS method requires fewer observations than classical Monte Carlo methods to yield statistically significant results. This paper presents the preliminary parameter study and LHS application results together with further LHS evaluations of RADTRAN input parameters